Ghana’s fiscal deficit is projected to close 2025 at 3.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), slightly above the government’s revised target of 3.8%, according to IC Research.
The leading economic research firm attributed the marginal overshoot to the government’s efforts to maintain expenditure discipline in the second half of the year while pushing to expand revenue. In its review of the 2025 Mid-Year Budget, IC Research said the strong restraint on spending during the first six months of the year had eased concerns about the near-term fiscal trajectory.
However, it warned that lingering risks remain, particularly from payroll costs and the country’s energy sector obligations.
“Despite the compression in the overall deficit target, the government surprisingly left the target primary surplus unchanged at 1.5% of GDP,” the report noted.
According to IC Research, the unchanged fiscal anchor reflects an unexpected GH¢2.9 billion jump in energy sector liabilities, taking the 2025 total to GH¢30.0 billion. Notably, 94.1% of that increase was paid in the first half of the year.
Its investigations showed that while the Electricity Company of Ghana generally adhered to the Cash Waterfall Mechanism in the first five months of 2025, a GH¢103.4 million shortfall in January and a likely under-collection in subsequent months contributed to the unplanned energy sector payments.
“This payment uncertainty in the energy sector keeps us cautious on the short-to-medium-term fiscal outlook,” the firm stated.
The government, in its Mid-Year Review Budget, lowered the 2025 fiscal deficit target from 4.1% to 3.8% of GDP, citing stronger-than-expected first-half performance. Finance Minister [name if available] reaffirmed the administration’s pledge to restore fiscal stability and strengthen public finances by year-end.
